Bitcoin’s bottom is one of the most debated and argued topics in the cryptocurrency community. While some enthusiasts argue that Bitcoin bottomed in 2018 when the price of Bitcoin hit $3,122, others claim that the bottom has not yet formed. In this article, we will address facts and moves made by Bitcoin in the past and try to extrapolate them to prove that the bottom for Bitcoin is yet to be formed.
The weekly chart shows the price of Bitcoin being supported by the 200-weekly moving average while being compressed by the 20-weekly moving average. Bitcoin has been known to respect the 200-weekly moving average, since the prices have never fallen below it since 2015.
Bitcoin might proceed in either of two scenarios. The first move, which is to the upside, would mean that Bitcoin has to break the 20-day moving average that has been keeping the prices from moving up for almost a year.
The alternate path that Bitcoin could take is to break the 200-weekly moving average, which would spell disaster and a massive collapse of the price, quite possibly similar to the move that Bitcoin took when it plunged from the $6,000-level.
The Stochastic RSI shows that the prices have reached an overbought zone during a strong downtrend, which indicates a potentially disastrous move to the downside. This, in turn, reassures Bitcoin’s move to the downside.
Moreover, the September 2015 price action of Bitcoin produced a pattern of RSI that is similar to that of March 12, 2019. This further proves that Bitcoin’s upcoming move is to the downside.
On September 29, 2014, the RSI dipped into the oversold zone, which could be easily confused as the bottom, but the price fell from $1,156 to $276, which is a total decrease of 44.8%, creating the actual bottom for Bitcoin in 2015.
Considering a similar drop for Bitcoin in the current scenario, the price of Bitcoin would dip from $3,852 to $2,126.3 in the upcoming future.
BTC Price vs BTC Shorts
The daily chart shows a relation between the number of shorts and the price of Bitcoin. The number of shorts is indirectly proportional to the price of Bitcoin; when the number of shorts increases, the price of Bitcoin tends to decrease.
At press time, the number of shorts was minimal, which indicates that the shorts have room to move to the upside. As and when that happens, the price will also move to the downside.
Moreover, the decreasing volume of Bitcoin in the one-day time frame shows that the price is getting coiled up and ready for a massive volatile move.
The chart seen above shows a comparison between variables like the 1 year+ UTXO, Block reward halving etc. UTXO stands for the unspent output from bitcoin transactions; the UTXO age indicates the last time Bitcoin moved. The data for the 1 year + UTXO when plotted gives the green line as seen in the chart above.
Between 2014 and 2016, the Bitcoin price bottomed after the UTXO line rose by 68%. At press time, the UTXO line has grown up 62%, which means that the bottom for Bitcoin has not been formed yet.
The weekly chart provides two scenarios, both of which support the movement of Bitcoin to the downside. The first scenario includes the 20 and the 200-weekly moving averages converging, thus restricting the price movement. This is accompanied by the RSI indicator creating the same pattern as it did back in 2015.
The second scenario shows Stochastic RSI indicator hitting the oversold condition in a downtrend, which proves that the price is bound to move downward.
The situation right now is quite similar to the famous “Schrodinger’s Cat Experiment,” we can only know for sure the path Bitcoin will take only after it does. The data above, the technicals and the fundamentals, indicate a downside movement for Bitcoin.
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